2013 Oscars Show, Jennifer Lawrence

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This weekend is the 86th annual Academy Awards. Here's hoping nobody falls. (We're morally obliged to say, "Here's hoping nobody falls," because if someone does fall we'll obviously feel bad for them—that's so embarrassing!—but also, assuming they aren't hurt, we will think it is hilarious. Because people falling is never not funny; why do you think America's Funniest Home Videos has been on the air for 800 years?).

Last year, Jennifer Lawrence fell. And boy, did we all love that! That Jennifer is so adorable! She is so relatable! She is one of us, the people! But who will fall this year? Let's go over the betting odds, from least likely to most likely.

Note: We have excluded those people who we would find no enjoyment in their falling, for one reason (Lupita Nyong'o, she's such a sweet girl and it's her first Oscars and it should be special) or another (Dame Judi Dench, she's old).

Least Likely to Fall

Sandra Bullock, Matthew McConaughey, Meryl Streep

Jordan Strauss/Invision/AP

Meryl Streep:

Falling Precedent: She took a tumble and lost a shoe while walking to the stage at the 2014 BAFTAs. But ignore that. It never happened. Chances of Falling: 1:1,000,000. God does not fall.

Matthew McConaughey:

Falling Precedent: None on record. Chances of Falling: 1:1,000. McConaughey is so slick that even if he were to fall, we probably wouldn't notice. He's that cool. He'd perfectly transition into a bongo drum dance routine. Or something else entirely. Alright, alright, alright.

Sandra Bullock:

Falling Precedent: None in real life, plenty of pratfalls in such classic films as Miss Congeniality and The Proposal. Not-so-fun fact: If you Google "Sandra Bullock Falls" the top story is a fake report that she fell to her death filming a movie in New Zealand. That's dark. Chances of Falling: 1:100. Sandy is the type that is willing to sacrifice glamour for comfort, which drastically decreases her chances of falling. And if she does fall, we can at least rest assured it will not be to her death.

The Middle Ground

Jennifer Lawrence, Leonardo DiCaprio, Anne Hathaway

Jason Merritt/Getty Images

Anne Hathaway:

Falling Precedent: None on record. Chances of Falling: 1:50. When you take all the factors into consideration (that woman are generally expected to wear a dress and high heels to the Oscars, that—actually, that's the only factor to consider), it seems more likely for a woman to fall at the Oscars than a man. Which increases Anne's odds. But she appears so...steadfast in her effort to be perfect that she will not fall. She will not allow it.

(Devil's advocate: The sheer will power of the Hathahaters just knocks her over. It's a toss up.)

Jennifer Lawrence:

Falling Precedent: She was the aforementioned actress who fell at least year's Academy Awards while walking up the stairs to the stage. Chances of Falling: Who knows?? It seems unlikely that she would fall two years in a row, but then again, it's Jennifer Lawrence.

Leonardo DiCaprio:

Falling Precedent: None on record. Chances of Falling: 1:25. It doesn't seem like he would be the type to fall, does it? Then again, that sounds like exactly something that would happen to Leonardo DiCaprio. If anything falls, it will be Leo's face if (or when) he loses Best Actor.

Bah-dum ching.

Leonardo DiCaprio GIF

Sorry, Leonardo.

The Likely Contenders

Angelina Jolie, Pharrell Williams, Ellen DeGeneres

Dave Allocca/Startraksphoto.com; Jordan Strauss/Invision/AP; Jason Merritt/Getty Images

Angelina Jolie:

Falling Precedent: None on record. Chances of Falling: 1:10. Angie has been practicing not falling at Oscar rehearsals, which seems like the easiest way to jinx yourself into falling. And if that leg is out again? Honey, all bets are off.


Falling Precedent: None on record. One time his wife tripped and her boob popped out. NSFW. Chances of Falling: 3:5. If he wears that giant hat while performing, we wouldn't be surprised in the least if the little guy toppled over.

Ellen DeGeneres:

Falling Precedent: She once fell on her daytime talk show, The Ellen DeGeneres Show. Chances of Falling: 1:2. Statistically speaking, she has the most opportunity to fall because, as the host, she will spend the most time onstage. Add in dancing (you KNOW Ellen's gonna be dancing) and there is a 50 percent chance she will fall.

Most Likely to Fall (If Someone Falls)

Amy Adams, BAFTA Film Awards 2014

Press Association via AP Images

Amy has no track record of tripping, falling, tumbling or any other accidental acrobatics on any red carpets, at any award shows, blah blah blah. But if anyone is going to fall at the Oscars, it's going to be Amy Adams, right? And she would (will) handle it absolutely adorably, we're sure of it.

Chances of Falling: 1:1. She's going down.

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