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The most surprising twist of the fall TV season? Our favorite new show is Return to Roanoke: 3 Days in Hell.

OK, to be fair, it's not really our new favorite show because the fake reality show within American Horror Story: Roanoke, which delivered its HUGE twist in last night's episode: The real-life players (Matt, Shelby and Lee), will live in a house with the actors who played their fictional selves on the smash hit of 2015, My Roanoke Nightmare. So meta, and yes, it's the best season of The Real World in years. With ghosts and death!

But another major twist was dropped in the episode: only one person will make it out of the farmhouse alive by the end of the season.

"What I love now is everybody's in the house and they all think it's fun and games, and then we are told that every single one of them dies except one person," co-creator/mastermind Ryan Murphy told E! News. "So the next four episodes, we are figuring out, OK, who's the one person who's going to make it out alive?"

Let's rundown the list of housemates and examine their odds...

American Horror Story, Evan Peters

FX

Rory Monaghan (Evan Peters)
Who He Is: The dimwitted actor played Edward Mott, Freak Show villain Dandy Mott's ancestor/the original owner of the farmhouse, complete in white wig and make-up. He fell for Audrey while filming, sealing their love by telling her at the wedding he was going to "love the s--t" of her for eternity.
Chances of Survival: The redhead ginger seems to be already be our first victim, as Matt believes the final "R" in the nurses murder wall stood for Rory, who was just stabbed by the nurses 'o death upstairs. But is it a red(-head) herring? Plus, it seems like Peters is having SO much fun with this role.

"It's probably my favorite thing he's done. Evan Peters in episode six is one of the greatest, most hilarious things Evan has ever done and he loved it," Murphy told us prior to last night's episode. "He's a very big, pivotal part of episode six." Wait, does that mean Rory really is dunzo?! Noooo! We refuse to believe this until we see the body.

American Horror Story: Roanoke

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Agnes Mary Winstead (Kathy Bates)
Who She Is: An out-of-work actor who landed the role of a lifetime when she was cast as the Butcher...and will never, ever, ever let it go as she enjoys being the Butcher more than Agnes. (Exhibit A: Swinging a knife at poor tourists on Hollywood Boulevard.) She's still pissed she didn't win at the Saturn Awards and is even more pissed that Sid banned her from the set of the follow-up series.
Chances of Survival: C'mon, we all know the real Butcher is going to eat Agnes for breakfast and then use her bones to make her own Saturn Award. And it sounds like episode seven is a big one for her, as Murphy said, "Seven is really the Kathy Bates show and I think it's the best work she's ever done in any of our seasons, that one episode. It's astonishing."

Lee (Adina Porter)
Who She Is: Matt's alcoholic sister, who became part of Nightmare after bringing her daughter to the house. Oh, and her ex-husband, Mason, died during their original stay in the house, with many people believing Lee murdered him. There's even a petition online for her to go to jail. (Reddit probably has an entire sub-thread dedicated to her!)
Chances of Survival: Well, ghost-Mason did not look very nice when we briefly saw him in episode six, and something tells us we can't trust the tale Lee, Matt and Shelby told in My Roanoke Nightmare. And that something is Ryan Murphy! 

"You cannot trust them. I think all three of them are…What they said and what they explained in their version of events is not actually the truth," Murphy told us.

American Horror Story: Roanoke

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Monet (Angela Bassett)
Who She Is: 
She played Lee in the reenactments, and seems to have gone a little too method in her portrayal, as she blames her recent alcoholism on Lee...and her new Cracker Jacks for dinner diet.
Chances of Survival: While she seems like she can take care of herself, her boozing may prove to be her downfall, which is unfortunate because we love her sass.

American Horror Story: Roanoke

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Shelby (Lily Rabe)
Who She Is: One of the real-life players, Shelby is not doing so well after the success of the original show. See, it actually put a big strain on her marriage, and Shelby turned to the next best thing: the actor who played her husband on the show, Dominic. While she vowed to never return to the farmhouse, she sees it as her only opportunity to reunite with Matt. 
Chances of Survival: Something tells us Shelby might sacrifice herself for Matt. Also: WHY DID YOU GO BACK TO THE HOUSE?

American Horror Story: Roanoke

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Dominic Banks (Cuba Gooding Jr.)
Who He Is: Matt's onscreen counterpart, who took things a little too far by having an affair with the real Shelby, though she claims it was a one-time thing. While Shelby was promised Dominic wouldn't be a part of the follow-up show, anyone who's ever watched a minute of reality TV knows who was the last housemate to arrive. 
Chances of Survival: Like Dominic cackles in the promo for next week's episode, "You know what I like about reality TV? The bad guy's always the lead in every show!" Because he provides a lot of tension, Dominic will have a good run, but will not be the lone survivor.

Sidney (Cheyenne Jackson)
Who He Is: While he's not technically a houseguest, the producer/sociopath behind My Roanoke Nightmare's success and the new show owns the farmhouse. He also refuses to let little things like on-set deaths, crazed actors and human decency ruin Return to Roanoke: 3 Days in Hell, dammit!
Chances of Survival: In Hollywood, this dude always wins...especially when you beat The Walking Dead, Empire and Sunday Night Football in the ratings. Fortunately, this is Fake Hollywood, and we have a feeling the housemates might indulge in some bonding by going after Sid.

American Horror Story: Roanoke

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Audrey Tindall (Sarah Paulson)
Who She Is: Shelby's on-screen counterpart, who is British and has an adorable accent that Rory and fans alike just can't stop obsessing over...as well as a Saturn Award for her work on the original show and a complex about being with such a younger man. 
Chances of Survival: We think Audrey's odds are pretty strong...because she's played by Sarah Paulson, whose roster of AHS characters tend to be survivors. 

American Horror Story: Roanoke

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Matt (André Holland)
Who He Is: Matt is one of the real-life players who is probably the saddest sack in the house, thanks to his wife cheating on him with his Hollywood counterpart. Like, if this was The Real World, he'd be the guy to show up to work on time and would stay in and read a book rather than go out. 
Chances of Survival: Call us crazy, but we think Matt may be the underdog of the season! Dude needs a win.

AHS: Roanoke airs Wednesdays at 10 p.m. on FX.

Want to debate the odds? Follow @tbrick2 on Twitter and tweet me your theories!