Future Oscar hosts wary of pulling a Jon Stewart might consider following the example of Billy Crystal: Follow the money.
While Stewart's now down as host of the lowest-rated Oscars on record, Crystal reigns as host of three of the four highest-rated Oscars of the past 10 years—thanks, in part, to impeccable timing.
With regards to the box office.
Crystal's big years in 1998, 2000 and 2004 coincided with big money-making years for the nominated films, led by the likes of Titanic, The Sixth Sense and Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. Indeed, per Box Office Mojo stats, those were among the four biggest years for Oscar contenders in the past decade.
The Crystal-steered Titanic Oscar ceremony of 1998 stands apart as the most watched Academy Awards on record. Not incidentally, Titanic itself stands apart as the biggest-grossing movie of all-time.
But the numbers also show Crystal is human.
When Crystal had a tougher field of nominees, he had a tougher time drumming up an audience. His 1997 performance, in fact, pulled the Oscars' lowest ratings of that decade, and the worst of his considerable Oscar-hosting career.
Stewart of all emcees should take heart, as Crystal's 1997 was very much like his disastrous Sunday.
On Oscar night 1997, four of the five Best Picture nominees were modest-grossing independent films, including Joel and Ethan Coen's first Oscar-winning effort, Fargo.
Likewise, this year, Stewart presided over a field in which four of the five Best Picture nominees were independent productions, low on star wattage, including the Coens' No Country for Old Men.
Stewart did himself no favors when he took the Oscar gig in 2006, either. That year, the five top nominees, distinguished by eventual Best Picture winner Crash, combined to gross the least amount of money since the mid-1980s for a Best Picture group. The Nielsen bottom line: the third worst Oscar ratings ever.
Such stats make the ratings Ellen DeGeneres earned last year all the more remarkable.
DeGeneres' slate of Best Picture nominees, outside of The Departed, also lacked for star-driven vehicles and didn't pack much more box-office punch than Stewart's from the previous year. And yet her show still broke the 40 million viewer mark.
Whoopi Goldberg, excluded from Sunday's montage of Oscar hosts pasts, also had her best year, 1999, in a relatively off box-office year for the nominees. (Conversely, she posted her worst performance in the year, 2002, that she was handed her biggest-grossing set of hopefuls.)
In any case, future Oscar hosts would be advised to follow the '07 DeGeneres route or the '99 Goldberg map at their own risk. Crystal balls just seem that much more reliable.
Here are other ratings highlights from the TV week ended Sunday:
- The final numbers show women broke up with Oscar in a big way. The show was down 26 percent with women aged 18-34, down 24 percent with women aged 18-49, and, in the name of consistency, down 27 percent with women aged 25-54.
- With women fleeing, the fashion-minded red-carpet shows were left reeling. ABC's official Oscar preshow was down 21 percent (21.5 million viewers), E!'s Live from the Red Carpet was down 24 percent (2.9 million viewers), and TV Guide Channel's Live at the Academy Awards was down 37 percent (633,000 viewers).
- More collateral damage: Barbara Walters' annual Oscar special finished in unlucky 13th place (11.7 million viewers), down 18 percent from last year.
- It could have been worse for the Oscars. American Idol could have had one of its superbig weeks. Instead, it merely had one of its pretty big weeks, and the Oscars got its No. 1 finish. (Except in the 18-49 demo, where Idol got the No. 1 and No. 2 finishes.)
- For those keeping score at home, Idol's men, as featured on Tuesday's show (second place, 29 million), outdrew Idol's women, as featured on Wednesday's show (third place, 28.9 million), who outdrew Idol's shunned, as shown the door on Thursday's show (fourth place, 23.4 million).
- For all the unscripted shows that NBC has thrown out there this winter, it's the old reliable Deal or No Deal (sixth place, 16.9 million for Monday's episode) that's sticking.
- In another Monday night heat, NBC's new competition series My Dad Is Better Than Your Dad (18th place, 9.8 million) got pansted by a repeat of CBS' Two and a Half Men (ninth place, 12.5 million).
- CBS' Dexter (48th place, 6.3 million) and Jericho (54th place, 5.9 million) were down 23 percent and 17 percent, respectively, from their premiere weeks. What do those shows think they are—the Oscars?
- Who do the Pussycat Dolls think they are—Jon Stewart? The CW's all-new Pussycat Dolls Present: Girlicious (109th place, 1.8 million) was down some 55 percent from last year's premiere of Pussycats Dolls Present: The Search for the Next Doll.
- Fox's Don't Forget the Lyrics (10th place, 12.4 million) would like to thank Thursday's Idol for just being there.
- For ABC's Dance War: Bruno vs. Carrie Ann, its inaugural season was like a box step—reliable, not flashy and ending up about where it began (23rd place, 9.2 million for the finale).
- The CW defended the honor of America's Top Model against an erroneous Fox charge that the show's 10th season premiere (82nd place, 3.8 million) was its lowest yet. Not so fast, the network pointed out: "There have been a few cycles that have premiered lower."
- The return of NBC's Saturday Night Live, featuring the pent-up sketches of its back-to-work writers, posted the late-night show's best overnight ratings since February 2006, NBC said.
- In cable, the premiere of Nick's hourlong Fairly OddParents tale, Fairly OddBaby, led all comers, averaging 8.8 million viewers.
- Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton did it again—a strong 7.6 million viewers for their CNN debate in Texas.
- The season finale of USA's Monk (6.9 million) did pretty well for a cable show featuring neither of the top Democratic presidential contenders.
Overall, Fox was the most watched network among total viewers (averaging 15 million viewers) and 18- to 49-year-olds.
Sickly or no, the Oscars did manage to boost ABC to second in viewers (9.9 million), followed by CBS (7.9 million), NBC (7.2 million), the Spanish-language network Univision (3.9 million) and then the CW (2.4 million).
USA was again cable's top prime-time network (3.1 million), followed by Disney (2.2 million) and TNT (2.17 million).
Here's a look at the 10 most watched broadcast network prime-time shows for the week ended Sunday, according to Nielsen Media Research:
1. 80th Annual Academy Awards, ABC, 32 million viewers
2. American Idol (Tuesday), Fox, 29 million viewers
3. American Idol (Wednesday), Fox, 28.9 million viewers
4. American Idol (Thursday), Fox, 23.4 million viewers
5. Oscar's Red Carpet 2008, ABC, 21.5 million viewers
6. Deal or No Deal, NBC, 16.9 million viewers
7. Lost, ABC, 13.6 million viewers
8. Survivor: Micronesia, CBS, 12.7 million viewers
9. Two and a Half Men, CBS, 12.5 million viewers
10. Don't Forget the Lyrics, Fox, 12.4 million viewers