When American Horror Story: Roanoke delivered its big twist two weeks ago, revealing that both the real-life My Roanoke Nightmare players and those playing them on the faux show-within-the-show would be moving into the hellish farmhouse together to wait out the Blood Moon, and only one was making it out alive, we did what any good TV fanatics would do and got to ranking the characters' odds. We predicted that poor cuckold Matt would be the last man standing.
And then we were swiftly proven wrong.
During last week's bloodbath of an episode, nearly half of the characters met their untimely—and grisly—end. Dimwitted actor Rory (Evan Peters) was confirmed dead after being stabbed and hoisted up into a tree in the woods. Producer (and resident sociopath) Sidney (Cheyenne Jackson) and his two unnamed employees were hacked to death by that maniac Agnes (Kathy Bates), who in turn, had her head split in two when she encountered the real-life Butcher. And then there was Matt (Andre Holland), our champion for survival, who had his head pulverized when Shelby (Lily Rabe) went full Negan after learning he'd only returned to the house to reconnect with his witch true love, Scathach (Lady Gaga). RIP Matt.
(Side note: How fascinating that, for a show ostensibly about the the horrifying ghosts that haunt the cursed Roanoke land, nearly all of the violence performed by another human? Mere coincidence or is the show making a larger point? We'll see...)
Let's rundown the list of remaining living housemates and examine their odds...
Monet (Angela Bassett)
Who She Is: She played Lee in the reenactments, and she got a little Method for her own good, walking away with her own case of debilitating alcoholism—which she hasn't been shy about blaming on Lee either.
Chances of Survival: It's looking like pretty dire straits for Monet, who we last saw captured alongside Audrey and Lee in the Polk's growhouse. She may still have all her limbs (which isn't something that can be said about everyone being held captive), but as easily the most expendable of the group, don't expect her to make it out of this one alive.
Dominic Banks (Cuba Gooding Jr.)
Who He Is: Matt's onscreen counterpart who took things a little too far and had an affair with Shelby out in the real world, breaking up their rocky marriage. (Though, if Matt was really in love with Lady Gaga's grimy witch o'the woods, did Dominic really break anything that wasn't already broken?)
Chances of Survival: The real Butcher and her murderous clan had Shelby and Dominic trapped in the house by the end of last week, so don't expect them both to make it to the very end. The only man left alive in this nightmare, he'll probably live longer than most, but there's no chance he's alive at the end. He just means too little to the overall story.
Audrey Tindall (Sarah Paulson)
Who She Is: Shelby's onscreen counterpart, who, in real-life, has a British accent and a Saturn Award for her work on My Roanoke Nightmare. The very Saturn Award that sent Agnes into her murderous tailspin when she lost to her co-star.
Chances of Survival: Once upon a time, we were relatively certain that Audrey's chances of going the distance were strong. After all, Paulson is routinely AHS' final girl. In all five prior installments, her character has survived (or, in the case of Hotel, was dead to begin with). But with the news that Paulson's Asylum character Lana Winters will show up in these final episodes, we've got a feeling that Audrey will have died beforehand.
Shelby (Lily Rabe)
Who She Is: One of the original players, Shelby's boneheaded return to the place that nearly killed her the first time seemed motivated by a desire to redeem herself in Matt's eyes. And then she killed him.
Chances of Survival: One of two characters left whose involvement in the original haunting makes her actually important to the ending, we once believed she might sacrifice herself for her man. How foolish we were. We're still pretty certain she'll die because of Matt—only now we think it'll be at the hands of Lee once she learns what her sister-in-law did to her brother.
Lee (Adina Porter)
Who She Is: Matt's alcoholic, ex-cop sister, whom viewers believe killed her ex-husband during the original haunting, only to blame it on the ghosts. She returned to the house to clear her name and tell her story her own way.
Chances of Survival: While it doesn't seem great that the Polks are making snacks from Lee's left thigh meat, the promo for tonight's episode seemed to hint at the possibility for Finn Wittrock's Jether (you know, the Polk who's good with a camera) to show some compassion and help Lee out. And if that happens, our money's on her being the last one standing (on however many limbs she's got left). Lee's got a name to clear, a narrative to reclaim, and just enough racial politics mixed into her story to make this a juicy conclusion on par with a Ryan Murphy production. (Think: An African-American person accused of something they didn't do, using their own cell phone to document events as they're really happening so the authorities can't twist the facts later.)
Plus, if esteemed journalist Lana Winters is coming, she'll likely be sitting down with the sole survivor for an interview. And what better get than accused murderer absolved of her crimes? Or the accused murderer convicted of about 10 more murders during the course of her second reality show? Either way, we're preparing ourselves for a Lana-Lee showdown.
Who do you think will survive? Debate the odds with us in the comments below.
American Horror Story: Roanoke airs Wednesdays at 10 p.m. on FX.