Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Universal Pictures

U.S. senators condemned it. And when they weren't condemning it, they were bashing it. 

But enough about Zero Dark Thirty's fun week.

Here's the latest look at how key Oscar races are shaping up—and why Les Misérables is falling down:

Best Picture: Oddsmakers are dumping Les Mis in the wake of preview screenings that netted tepid reviews. (Our favorite Rotten Tomatoes blurb? "I didn't like it," courtesy of the Chicago Tribune's Michael Phillips.) Lincoln's now atop the hypothetical leader board, followed by Les Mis and Zero Dark Thirty, which hangs as tough as a waterboarded person of interest. And, no, Django Unchained didn't have a great week, either, but unlike Les Mis it didn't have a perceived lead to squander. 

Best Director: We can't say we ever thought that this soon into his career, Tom Hooper would end up with twice as many wins as Martin Scorsese. But if Academy members are anything like movie reviewers (and often they're not), then Hooper's slim chances are shot. More than anything, Les Mis is getting slammed for Hooper's direction—or rather, for how Hooper directed the camera "6 inches away from the actors' mouths," as Moviefone's Drew Taylor put it. Bottom line: The safe money's still on Lincoln's Steven Spielberg.

Best Supporting Actress: The early Les Mis reviews have only strengthened the case to bet on Anne Hathaway; even the critics who don't like the film like her. (Favorite headline: PolicyMic's "Anne Hathaway Will Break Your Heart.")  

Best Supporting Actor: Les Mis' Eddie Redmayne wins the award for the week's best press placement, including zippy get-to-know-you profiles in The New York Times and Vanity Fair's website. But he's still a far-outside pick; The Master's Philip Seymour Hoffman and Lincoln's Tommy Lee Jones remain the favorites.

Best Makeup: This category just got short-listed, and we're going to say The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey is the favorite as it no doubt takes a lot of artistry to make everyone look all hobbit-y. But we're also going to say this: The fact that Les Mis was short-listed here as well means, rough round with the critics or not, it's a front-runner among front-runners. Like Lincoln.

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