Les Miserables

Laurie Sparham/Universal Studios

It was a very good week for Lincoln. It was a good-enough week for Les Misérables.

A look at where the Oscar races stand, per the oddsmakers and our awards-season-attuned gut:

Best Picture: Les Mis remains the pick, although Lincoln, which got the best headlines and the most nominations out of the Golden Globes, is seemingly gaining on it. Zero Dark Thirty remains right up there despite chattering about whether the military thriller endorses torture and, for something completely different, whether director Kathryn Bigelow is still dating screenwriter Mark Boal.  

Best Actor: Here's the deal, when we don't think Lincoln's Daniel Day-Lewis is going to win, we'll let you know.

Best Actress: A scenario: Aged Academy members fret over which one's Silver Linings Playbook's Jennifer Lawrence and which one's Zero Dark Thirty's Jessica Chastain before giving up and throwing their votes to Amour's 85-year-old Emmanuelle Riva. Note, we didn't say this was a likely scenario, although we do think Lawrence and Chastain will battle it out, and Riva will nab an Oscar nod despite striking out with the Globes and Screen Actors Guild Awards.

Best Supporting Actor: A two-way race, probably, between The Master's Philip Seymour Hoffman and Lincoln's Tommy Lee Jones to be decided, possibly, by whether Day-Lewis and Lincoln have coattails. Right now, Hoffman is considered to have the edge.

Best Supporting Actress: Even Les Mis un-fans, like New York's David Edelstein, know why Anne Hathaway's going to win—and for which song: "She does it ['I Dreamed a Dream'] in a single take in a ghoulishly tight close-up, and although her plucked-chicken appearance is frightful, I was filled with admiration when she hit the big notes and stole the song back from [Susan] Boyle."

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