Twilight Saga Breaking Dawn Part 2, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Summit Entertainment, Warner Bros

Like a certain presidental election, the holiday-movie box office may be decided by demographics.

Which isn't good news for Breaking Dawn Part 2 in its battle versus Peter Jackson's The Hobbit.

Of course, it's hardly devastating news, either.

The final Twilight movie, opening Nov. 16, is going to make a lot of money: The franchise's last three installments averaged some $290 million at the domestic box office.

As a finale, the latest chapter will probably get a bounce. It's already outpacing Breaking Dawn Part 1 in advance sales. And analyst Jeff Bock of Exhibitor Relations said he expects Part 2 to finish on the upper end of the series' range, with a take of about $300 million.

In most holiday-movie seasons that would be enough for the win. But this holiday-movie season will see Jackson's The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey arrive on Dec. 14. 

Bock thinks the new chapter, the first J.R.R. Tolkien adventure from the Lord of the Rings master in nearly a decade, could go as high as $400 million domestically.

The difference-maker? (Well, besides the LOTR factor, and the nearly decade-long wait?)

"As popular as the Twilight franchise is, it's still predominately female fans,"  Bock said in an email, "whereas The Hobbit has all demographics at its disposal, including the ultra-lucrative family audience."'

Yup, demographics. Again.

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