Remember how last year's Grammys was full of surprises? (Justin Bieber goes downArcade Fire comes out on top! "Hey, Soul Sister," seriously?!)

This year will be nothing like that.

You can bet on Adele—and these other locks for Sunday's big show:

1. Nicki Minaj Will Not Win Best New Artist: The oddsmakers disagree. Maybe your ears do, too. But, sorry, the Grammys' Best New Artist category rarely follows conventional wisdom. Rather, it marches to its own beat, a beat that usually sounds like either country-pop and/or something your own mom would download, a beat that this year will sound like either The Band Perry or Bon Iver.

2. Kanye West Will Be in a Pretty Good Mood: So, what usually happens is West gets upset, and then he gets upset. That can't happen this time out. While he's the top Grammy nominee, and he's all but assured of owning the rap division, he figures into only one of the four glamour categories, Song of the Year, and surely not even West can think he's the front-runner there. (Um, right?)

3. Amy Winehouse Will Make You Cry: If not because she wins posthumously for her Tony Bennett duet, "Body and Soul," up for Best Pop Duo/Group Performance, then because you realize it was only four years ago—just four—that she was hailed as Best New Artist.

4. Betty White Does It Again: What would an awards show be like without everybody's favorite golden girl beating down the competition with a cheery smile? One day, maybe, we'll know. But not on Sunday. Here's a hunch White takes out Tina Fey to claim the Grammy for Best Spoken Word Album.

5. Win or Lose, Adele Will Be the Story: Before the show, she'll be on 60 Minutes, during the show, she'll be on stage (her first performance since vocal-cord surgery) and come envelope-opening time, she'll be picking up trophies for Song of the Year, Record of the Year and Album of the Year because barring one of those out-of-left-field Grammy moments (Foo Fighters for the win in Album of the Year, perhaps?), the British star will not be losing.

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