Melissa McCarthy didn't get a Golden Globe nomination: bad, right?
Rooney Mara did get a Golden Globe nomination: good, right?
Let's take a look at which Oscar hopefuls are trending up—and down—after the biggest awards-season week yet:
HOTTER
1. Melissa McCarthy: The important thing isn't that the Bridesmaids scene-stealer was shut out by the Globes; it's that she was embraced by the Screen Actors Guild Awards. For the 2010 movie year, a SAG nomination gave an actor an 85 percent chance of securing an Oscar nomination; a Globe nomination, only 50 percent. Even dismissing the Musical-Comedy acting categories, which netted only one Academy Award nod among them, the 2010 Globes still only gave its Drama nominees a 70 percent chance of snagging seats at the Kodak. The bottom line: Jenny McCarthy's right—her cousin "can still get an Oscar."
2. Jonah Hill: If Bridesmaids needed this week to be taken seriously, then so did Brad Pitt's Moneyball friend. After SAG and Globe nominations, there's nothing funny about The Sitter's Oscar chances.
3. Glenn Close: Is Barbra Streisand the only Hollywood star who didn't get an Oscar nomination for playing against gender type? Um, just about. The point: If you weren't familiar with Albert Nobbs before Close bagged SAG and Globe nods, then you will be after she more than likely bags an Academy Award nod, too.
COLDER
1. Rooney Mara: Recheck the stats. The fact that she got a Globe nomination isn't as significant as the fact that she (and everybody else in The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo cast) didn't get a SAG nomination. Also, it's probably not a good idea to go on record against a TV institution. Here's betting at least a couple Academy members are among Law & Order: SVU's "obsessed" fan base.
2. War Horse: Oddsmakers sold stock on the Steven Spielberg epic's Best Picture prospects after SAG voters snubbed its human stars, and Globe voters excluded Spielberg from the Best Director race.
3. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy: The best-case scenario for this Gary Oldman film is that it's this awards season's True Grit, a slow-starter, ignored by the Globes, that wakes up come Oscar time. For now, though, this Cold War thriller is just plain cold.