Gauging W.'s Poll Numbers

Fri., Oct. 17, 2008 7:30 AM PDT by Joal Ryan

Platon

It's so easy to misunderestimate W.

The $30 million Oliver Stone film opens Friday with loads of baggage, but only modest, at best, box-office expectations.

Will the first biopic about a sitting U.S. president be able to prove the nattering naybobs of negativism wrong, unseat Beverly Hills Chihuahua and be a pain in the side of Max Payne?

The odds, like President Bush's approval ratings, don't look good.

"There are some who are completely turned off by political films," says Box Office Guru editor Gitesh Pandya.

Sure enough, the most successful movies about politics—think All the President's Men and Stone's JFK—aren't really about politics, and aren't even really about presidents, no matter their titles.

In the multiplex era, the "top-grossing" presidential movie that's actually about an actual president is Nixon, another Stone film, which cost $44 million to produce and only made back about $14 million in theaters.

"This one [W.] is a bit different, and has the curiousity factor working for it," Pandya said in an email.

Certainly, lightning-rod Stone worked lightning quick to get Josh Brolin into George W. Bush's boots, and into theaters before the November elections. Advance-ticket buyers, at least, seemed to appreciate the effort. At both Fandango and MovieTickets.com, W. was outselling the weekend's presumed new No. 1 film, Max Payne, through midweek.

On the downside of ripping a story from the headlines, Exhibitor Relations box-office analyst Jeff Bock doesn't see a movie about the most unpopular president in U.S. history playing long in the days of President-Elect McCain or President-Elect Obama.

"I honestly think the shelf life is going to be short," Bock says.

If Bush fatigue doesn't get W., the Iraq War might.

Stone's story hinges on Bush's decision to wage a war that, for Hollywood's purposes, has done nothing but inspire box-office nonstarters, including Stop-Loss, Rendition and Redacted.

A better-case scenario for W. would be to, not unlike its subject matter, lose the popular vote, but win the expectations game.

Pandya, for one, forecast a respectable $10 million debut. Bock, for another, thinks the low teens are possible. Unless they're not.

"I also think it may bomb outright," Bock says.

In movies, as in politics, poll numbers are tricky to read.