Does This Debut Make Brüno Look Fat?

Studio maintains Baron Cohen comedy a bottom-line success with $30.4 million estimated weekend; box office analysts say film already fading fast

Brüno beat Borat. The rest is debatable.

Sacha Baron Cohen's latest experiment in button-pushing comedy grossed $30.4 million, per studio estimates, topping the weekend competition, and besting the debut for Cohen's 2006 surprise blockbuster.

Box office analysts cautioned that Brüno was already fizzling after a fast and fat Friday, while Universal Pictures basically maintained fast and fat ain't a bad thing.

"Certainly Brüno's Friday pointed to something higher than $30.4 million," Box Office Mojo's Brandon Gray said today.

Said Universal exec Nikki Rocco: "We're thrilled with the results."

Breaking down the numbers:

• Audience tracking showed Brüno played, majority-wise, to men and people over 25. There was no demographic mention of the two groups believed to be most offput by the antics of Cohen's Austrian reporter character: gays and straights.

• Per estimates, Brüno made $14.4 million on Friday, and $8.8 millon on Saturday. It's pegged to make $7.2 million on Sunday.

• After Brüno's Friday performance, the tracking firm Exhibitor Relations figured the comedy was on track for a $36 million weekend. Then came Saturday's drop-off of nearly 40 percent. "Word got out how offensive this movie is," Exhibitor Relations' Jeff Bock said today. "Don't expect this one to stick around too long." 

• Rocco was not making predictions on the film's shelf life. "There's no crystal ball," she said. "…As an acquisition, we had certain expectations for Brüno, and it exceeded them."

• Brüno is actually not in bad company in the fall-off department. Other recent movies that took steep, second-day Saturday tumbles, per Box Office Mojo: Twilight (41 percent) and Hannah Montana: The Movie (40 percent).

• Here's the stat that's raising eyebrows the highest: If estimates hold, Brüno's Friday will account for about half of its opening-weekend business. According to Box Office Mojo's Gray, only six other films in Hollywood history experienced a more "warped weekend," as he put it. And while two of those movies were the hits Hannah Montana and Twilight, one of them was Aqua Teen Hunger Force Colon Movie Film for Theaters.

• Universal, which gave Cohen $42.5 million in 2006 to make Brüno, had said any opening weekend in the $20 million range would ensure the studio a profit. 

• While dollarwise, Brüno beat Borat, nearly everything else-wise, Borat holds the advantage. Borat was a cheaper studio buy (a reputed $18 million commitment from Fox) that outearned Brüno theater for theater. Cohen's earlier comedy opened with $26.5 million off 837 screens, a limited release compared to Brüno's 2,756 theater count.

• While Brüno may not have legs, it is translating well. The movie grossed an estimated $20 million overseas, Universal said.

• From the Alanis Morissette department of irony, the weekend's biggest movie, theater for theater, was a button-pushing comedy about two straight guys making a gay-porn movie. In limited release, the Sundance hit Humpday made $29,000 at two theaters.

• Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs ($28.5 million) held on to second place, and held well, dropping only 32 percent from its opening weekend.

• Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen ($24.2 million) fell from first to third, but pushed its take to $339.2 million.

• At $113.8 million overall, The Proposal ($10.5 million) became the biggest hit of Sandra Bullock's career, after Speed.

• Public Enemies ($14.1 million) held OK, dropping 44 percent from its debut weekend. The Johnny Depp movie moved up to $66.5 million overall. Universal's Rocco predicted it would hit $100 million. 

• Another grown-up movie, The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3, fell out of the Top 10 after four weekends, and having failed to reach $100 million. It stands at $61.4 million so far.

• Hayden Panettiere's I Love You, Beth Cooper was the weekend's other major new release. Not that you could tell from its seventh place, $5 million debut.

Here's a complete look at the weekend's top-grossing films based on Friday-Sunday estimates as compiled by Exhibitor Relations:

1. Brüno, $30.4 million
2. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs, $28.5 million
3. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, $24.2 million
4. Public Enemies, $14.1 million
5. The Proposal, $10.5 million
6. The Hangover, $9.9 million
7. I Love You, Beth Cooper, $5 million
8. Up, $4.7 million
9. My Sister's Keeper, $4.2 million
10.  Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian, $1.5 million

(Originally published July 12, 2009, at 10:09 a.m. PT)