Twentieth Century FoxDinosaurs versus giant robots—now there's an even match.
And so it was at the weekend box office, where the tracking firm Exhibitor Relations declared the race "too close to call," with the studios behind Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs and Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen both estimating $42.5 million grosses.
Johnny Depp's Public Enemies debuted with an estimated $26.2 million, on the high side for grown-up movies, circa 2009, if not on the high side of projections.
Drilling down into the numbers:
• By the time Monday's final numbers come in, Exhibitor Relations' Jeff Bock predicts Dawn of the Dinosaurs will be on top by itself—he thinks family-driven Sunday business will give the toon the edge.
• In its first five days, Dawn of the Dinosaurs, which opened Wednesday, has grossed $67.5 million, which is a lot, but seems like a little less when you recall that the second Ice Age movie, The Meltdown, made $68 million in its first three days in 2006.
• Happy Fourth of July? Not in Hollywood. Business was down nearly 17 percent from last weekend—and 26 percent from the same weekend last year. Blame the outdoor holiday for falling on a Saturday, traditionally the biggest moviegoing night of the week.
• Ticket sales for Revenge of the Fallen fell 61 percent from last weekend, which itself wasn't quite as big as originally estimated. Paramount's final numbers put the Transformers sequel's opening weekend at $108.9 million, down from the $112 million estimate. Thanks to movie magic, however, the film still goes in the record books as getting off to a $200 million-ish, Dark Knight-esque five-day start because Paramount marked up the movie's first two days.
• Right now, Revenge of the Fallen's domestic haul stands at a very tall $293.5 million. At the same point in its run, however, The Dark Knight stood at about $334 million, so that comparison model is now officially obsolete.
• Since Wednesday, Public Enemies has grossed $41 million, putting the R-rated gangster drama halfway home to its reputedly $80 million budget.
• Among 2009 movies with fortysomething leads, Depp's Public Enemies Friday-Sunday weekend ranks behind Ben Stiller's Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian ($54.2 million) and Sandra Bullock's The Proposal ($33.6 million), and ahead of Nicolas Cage's Knowing ($24.6 million) and Will Ferrell's Land of the Lost ($18.8 million).
• Among 2009 movies with two strikes against them (read: fortysomething leads and no special effects and/or Betty White bits, à la The Proposal), the Depp film outranks Russell Crowe's State of Play ($14.1 million), Julia Roberts' Duplicity ($14 million) and Robert Downey Jr.'s and Jamie Foxx's The Soloist ($9.7 million).
• The Hangover ($10.4 million) fell two places in the standings, down to fifth, but pushed past $200 million overall.
• Star Trek ($1.7 million) departs the Top 10 after a franchise-revitalizing run that lasted eight weekends and scored $250 million.
Here's a complete look at the weekend's top-grossing films based on Friday-Sunday estimates as compiled by Exhibitor Relations:
1. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs, $42.5 million (tie)
1. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, $42.5 million (tie)
3. Public Enemies, $26.2 million
4. The Proposal, $12.8 million
5. The Hangover, $10.4 million
6. Up, $6.6 million
7. My Sister's Keeper, $5.3 million
8. The Taking of Pelham 123, $2.5 million
9. Year One, $2.1 million (tie)
9. Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian, $2.1 million (tie)
(Originally published July 5, 2009, at 8:57 a.m. PT)