Oscar Watch: Odds Are Not With Neil Patrick Harris
Monty Brinton/CBS
Hugh Jackman's out. Ricky Gervais is taken. Neil Patrick Harris is moving up the Academy Awards' invite list.
Not so fast on that last one.
On Friday, we asked Las Vegas' own Oscar handicapper Johnny Avello for his take on who'll be the awards show's next host. Avello, director of sports race and sports operations for the Wynn and Encore hotels, kindly complied with a hot-off-the-presses line.
When we first took a look, we were surprised. And not because the favorite of favorites is a dark horse. Because it—or rather, he—isn't. At all. Let's just say if Avello's right, your next Oscars telecast is going to be a blast from the past.
And not a blast from the Emmys by way of the Tonys. (Sorry, NPH.)
According to Avello's line, Billy Crystal, the quintessential Oscar host of the last 20 years, is a Hollywood-leading, 5-to-2 bet to return for his ninth gig as emcee.
The comic last hosted in 2004. Back in February, after Jackman's success, columnist Roger Friedman, then of Fox News, floated the idea that Crystal was open to coming back.
All makes sense to Avello. "He's done such remarkable job on this in the years," he said.
After Crystal, Avello broke down the odds on 11 other potential candidates, including all the other living former solo hosts, save Chevy Chase: Jon Stewart (3 to 1), Ellen DeGeneres (4 to 1), Chris Rock (5 to 1), Whoopi Goldberg (20 to 1), Steve Martin (25 to 1) and, however unlikely, David Letterman (50 to 1).
"I don't think he has any plans of doing anything now," Avello said of the scandal-scarred Late Show star.
Only five newbies made the list. And, Harris fans, take heart: According to Avello, the Tonys and Emmys favorite has the best shot, at 8-to-1 odds, of any of the potential first-timers.
"He's in the mix because he's proven he can do this type of show, and he can do this type of show well," Avello said.
The downside is, Harris has done this type of show well twice in recent months—three times, if you count the TV Land Awards.
"That's what he has going against him: Do we want to see his face that many times this year?" Avello asked.
Elsewhere, Tina Fey's given a 18-to-1 chance, followed by Jerry Seinfeld (30 to 1), Stephen Colbert (35 to 1) and Steve Carell (40 to 1).
The veteran oddsmaker knows better than to rule out anybody who's not on the list—even Jackman.
Said Avello: "He can always change his mind."
Some other tidbits:
• Last year, Jackman wasn't named as host until December. So we may have some weeks to go until we get a final answer.
• What about Paula Abdul? The ex-American Idol judge, after all, does have an "in" with Adam Shankman, who'll produce the telecast with Bill Mechanic. The Hairspray director told the Associated Press he was a dancer in an Abdul production number at the 1989 show.
• Keep drilling on the names Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds) and Gabourey Sidibe (Precious). Both acting contenders kept the buzz going with wins at the Hollywood Film Awards, which were held this past week, and which kicked off awards season, which will be kicked off again when the Globe nominations are announced in December—and everybody's really paying attention.
