Writers, Producers Hobbled by Labor Pains

What do Jay Leno's monologue, your TiVo and L.A.'s hottest lunch spots have in common?

All three could be full of dead air if the writers who keep things dramatic, funny and fictional in this town go on strike, an industry-wide blow that could occur as early as Friday.

Mediated contract talks ended Wednesday between representatives from the Writers Guild of America and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, paving the way for a writers walkout that could leave shows without scripts, businesses without customers and networks airing mostly reality shows, iffy midseason replacements, repeats and newsmagazines—a fittingly scary concept on this Halloween night.

The writers have received authorization from their union to go on strike once their current three-year contract expires at midnight, although now insiders are saying that a walkout could be put off until next week or as late as June, when the writers' contract with directors expires.

Producers have already dropped their idea to cut the sometimes life-sustaining residuals that TV and film writers receive from repeats and DVD sales, but the scribblers are still gunning for what they view as their new-media fair share, now that DVDs make up such a huge chunk of revenues and because so much of the writers' content ends up being distributed online, via cell phones, etc., as well as through traditional media channels.

As of Tuesday night, both sides were working on "modifications to their proposals," according to a statement from AMPTP president Nick Counter.

Tuesday's talks reportedly focused on second-tier issues, such as health and pension contributions, but it sounds as if New Media was at the top of the list once again on Wednesday.

"We are committed to a fair, reasonable and sensible agreement that is beneficial for everyone," Counter said after negotiations concluded shortly after 7 p.m. "However, opportunities do not come without challenges. We will not agree to any proposals that impose unreasonable restrictions and unjustified costs."

In other words, according to the WGA, "no significant progress was made."

"The companies refused to continue to bargain unless we agree that the hated DVD formula be extended to Internet downloads," the guild said in a statement Wednesday.

"This morning we presented the AMPTP with a comprehensive package of proposals that included movement on DVDs, new media, and jurisdictional issues. We also took nine proposals off the table. The Companies returned six hours later and said they would not respond to our package until we capitulated to their Internet demand.

"After three and a half months of bargaining, the AMPTP still has not responded to a single one of our important proposals. Every issue that matters to writers, including Internet reuse, original writing for new media, DVDs and jurisdiction has been ignored. This is completely unacceptable."

Meanwhile, no new talks are scheduled for Thursday, according to the AMPTP, which has said that it will not agree to any contract that obstructs their ability to experiment with new media platforms for film and TV distribution.

WGA members are scheduled to talk among themselves, however, at a meeting on Thursday evening at the Los Angeles Convention Center, with legal minds saying that it might behoove the guild to keep the threat of a strike looming.

WGA president Patrick Verrone told the guild's 12,000 or so members in a recent email that the purpose of the gathering is to "update everyone in person on negotiations and what our next options will be from that moment on."

According to trade and other media reports, not only is the quantity of new content at risk, but so is the quality of what we get to watch in 2008 on both the big and small screen, due to the last-minute scramble to turn lots of material in before a possible work stoppage.

Shows that air daily, such as The Daily Show and The Colbert Report, The Tonight Show and The Late Show (during which David Letterman joked Tuesday that he might have to return to the writers' room—a disaster in the making) and Late Night with Conan O'Brien would be among a strike's first victims, as few would be left to pen the topical monologues and sketches that kick off each show.

Week-to-weekers like Saturday Night Live would also be affected, possibly as soon as this Saturday, if the writers—who tend to tweak sketches up until the 11th hour—take off.

"Boom—our show just shuts down," SNL player Amy Poehler told Variety. "It's just done. There is no backlog of scripts."

Scripted dramas and sitcoms on the air now are reportedly in the clear until at least January, with showrunners having stockpiled enough episodes to last until midseason, when new and returning shows already scheduled to premiere in 2008—24, Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles, Lost, Jericho, etc.—can slide into their pre-assigned timeslots.

However, serials like Fox's 24 are costly and time-consuming to produce and, especially considering producers had to scrap original plans for season seven's plot line, there may not be enough scripts ready for that show in particular to last "all day." And Lost, which promised 16 uninterrupted fourth-season episodes, might only have about eight ready to go.

Plenty of reality series, including new cycles of America's Next Top Model, Dancing with the Stars, The Bachelor, American Idol and a bundle of newbies (here comes Farmer Wants a Wife on the CW!), will be raring to go, however. Newsmagazines such as Dateline NBC could also be called into play to fill the gaps.

"The fact is, it's good for reality TV and bad for scripted TV," Cops producer Morgan Langley told USA Today. His pioneering Fox series was actually born of the 1988 writers' strike, which lasted almost six months.

Among the series that are better off heading into these uncertain times are Everybody Hates Chris, which has a full 22-episode season in the can; Prison Break, which is supposed to return from hiatus in April but whose upcoming winter finale can stand in for a season finale; and The Simpsons, which has recorded 21 out of 22 episodes.

But, as executive producer Al Jean reminded Variety, The Simpsons—just like every other show and big-studio film—will most likely still be in need of the rewrite power that it's usually up to guild members to provide.

"Recorded doesn't mean they're done," Jean said.

Shows without a tried and true audience—Private Practice, Samantha Who?, Pushing Daisies, Chuck and Back to You come to mind—could suffer as well if they're forced into a lengthy hiatus.

But while the major networks aren't likely to go dark anytime soon, and costs may actually go down because it costs a heck of a lot less to make Supernanny than Lost, the decrease in ad revenue is just the tip of the financial iceberg when it comes to the negative repercussions of a possible labor stoppage.

Los Angeles County's entertainment industry employs at least 250,000 people (and at least as many who benefit from the biz) and accounts for $30 billion, or seven percent, of the region's $442 billion economy. What would be the first writers' strike in 20 years could have a chilling effect on a lot more than the TV listings.

If the 1988 walkout cost the industry—including creative types, crew members, talent agencies, food service, equipment manufacturers and more—$500 million then, the industry is looking at upwards of a billion-dollar loss by today's figures.