Shrek Versus Spidey: Which Will Rule the Summer?

Dreamworks SKG

Spidey will still hold the crown after this weekend at the box office, but the race for the overall box-office champ is on as Shrek the Third explodes into more than 4,000 theaters this weekend.

Here are a few reasons why Shrek won't beat Spidey's record-breaking run:

Less Interest in Midnight Screenings and 24-Hour Showings:  No parent should be taking their kids to see a flick at 3 a.m. At least I hope not; that would be messed up. I remember seeing Deep Blue Sea on 84th and Broadway opening weekend at 11:35 p.m. and seeing a little girl vomit at the ticket booth. Then her mother took her to the movie! It was awful. Nobody should have to sit through an LL Cool J shark movie late at night...especially a vomiting five-year-old.

Columbia Pictures

Spidey Had Zero Competition; Shrek Has Spidey:  The weekend before Spider-Man 3 opened, the number one movie in America was Disturbia, for the third week in a row, and it didn't even crack 10 million bucks. Spidey kicked off the summer season, and Shrek is just another film to drop in a long, long season of sequels. Shrek will put up a strong number this weekend, probably just over $100 million or so, just not enough to beat Spidey.

Shrek's Taking It Slow:  Unlike Spidey, which seemed to open in every corner of the globe on the same day, Shrek's international rollout will be slow. The London premiere, for example, isn't until June 11, almost a month after it drops Stateside. Not having the entire global media blitz does affect the excitement and anticipation in the States.

However, I see the value in the long term over the short term every time. Spidey's dramatic dropoff from week one to two is an indication that the fanboys exhausted themselves the first week and the film will fade as the summer season rolls on. Shrek doesn't have another animated competitor until Surf's Up hits theaters June 8.

Shrek will eventually catch up to Spidey—slow and steady wins the race. Remember, Shrek 2 holds the record for the all-time highest second weekend at the box office with $72 million. I say Shrek the Third tops that. 

Steve Granitz/WireImage.com

What do you think?  

Shout-out to Nick Cannon, too, for Even Money, which hits theaters this weekend. Dude gets to work with Forest Whitaker at the top of his game, a great tune-up for Arthur Ashe, which Nick hopes to make soon.