Emmy Noms on Instant Replay?

You remember last year's Emmys? Cool. Then you're set for Thursday.

Nominations for the 55th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are due out at 8:30 a.m. ET/5:30 PT. E!'s live coverage begins a half-hour earlier, at 8 a.m. ET/5 a.m. PT.

Shows and names you'll likely be hearing read from the podium by Malcolm in the Middle mom Jane Kaczmarek and TV Academy honcho Bryce Zabel: Six Feet Under, Michael Chiklis, Jennifer Aniston, Everybody Loves Raymond.

You know, just like last year's Emmys.

"Predicting the Emmy nominations is the easiest game in town," says awards-show expert Tom O'Neil. "The [only] surprise will be the lack of surprise."

O'Neil wrote the book on the Emmys--literally. The author of The Emmys: The Ultimate, Unofficial Guide to the Battle of TV's Best Shows and Greatest Stars says he hopes shows like The Gilmore Girls and Smallville will find their way into the nomination envelopes. He's just not counting on it.

"The fundamental flaw of Emmy voting," as O'Neil sees it, is the popular ballot that, at nomination time, rewards popular, ratings successes. That's why, he theorizes, you find so many top 10 hits up for shiny statuettes, and so many niche shows (read WB and UPN series) down for the count.

"The TV critics of America will scream on Thursday morning when they see this lineup," predicts O'Neil, host of the awards-show Website, GoldDerby.com. "They'll scream because there's no new blood in the race."

Indeed, about the only new blood that experts like O'Neil, his fellow GoldDerby.com pundits and E! Online's own TV maven, Kristin, expect to be spilled in the top categories is actually old blood: The Sopranos.

HBO's mob hit, a past Emmy favorite, was not in the game last year because it didn't air any new episodes during the eligibility period, typically early June of the previous year to late May of the competition year.

The Sopranos' fourth season ran from September 2002 through December 2002, meaning Emmy voters are clear to sing the praises of boss Tony's crew--and they probably will.

Conventional wisdom says The Sopranos will draw a bid in the Outstanding Drama Series category, along with 24, Six Feet Under and The West Wing, all returning nominees. (The West Wing is the incumbent award winner.)

Critics such as E! Online's Kristin and O'Neil differ on the I.D. of the fifth show. Kristin opts for CSI: Crime Scene Investigation, which also was nominated last year. O'Neil thinks Law & Order will fill out the category.

NBC's Law & Order wasn't just nominated last year--it has been nominated for the award every year, for 11 years. If it collars a nod on Thursday, it'll be the first series, comedy or drama, to snag 12 consecutive nominations for Outstanding Series.

The comedy race is expected to look familiar, with pundits predicting last year's five nominees--Curb Your Enthusiasm, Everybody Loves Raymond, Sex and the City, Will & Grace and reigning champ Friends--to be this year's five nominees.

For that rerun, O'Neil blames TV makers more than Emmy voters.

"The problem is we haven't had any breakout comedies that have been Emmy worthy," O'Neil says.

About the only new face the experts expect to see at Thursday's nominations is Tony Shalhoub. The star of USA's defective detective series Monk (as seen in prime-time reruns on ABC) is being pegged as a likely contender for Best Actor in a Comedy Series.

Other than that, look for more of the "same old Emmys," as O'Neil says. That means (probably) Jennifer Aniston and Sarah Jessica Parker squaring off for Best Comedy Actress honors, Michael Chiklis and Martin Sheen battling for Best Drama Actor and Amy Brenneman and Jennifer Garner returning for another Best Drama Actress race.

The awards are to be presented September 21 in a Fox telecast--the first show under a new eight-year, $52 million deal struck by the big four networks (ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox).

The pricey pact guaranteed the Emmys wouldn't jump to HBO. It didn't guarantee surprises.