"I would give it less than a month."
Yes, that's how long a source close to The Bachelor is predicting Juan Pablo Galavis and Nikki Ferrell's relationship will last after he chose her, but didn't propose or say "I love you," in Monday's controversial finale.
Then again, it's not like the ABC reality franchise has a great track record for creating long-lasting relationships. In 18 seasons, just one couple has actually said "I do." But hey, maybe Juan Pablo and Nikki will prove their critics wrong.
To truly figure out the odds of JP and Nikki sticking together, we took a class at the Bachelor School of Love for a history lesson and to crunch some numbers.
Season 1's Alex Michel and Amanda Marsh: No proposal, broke up several months after the finale
Season 2's Aaron Buerge and Helene Eksterowicz: Engagement, broke up after three months
Season 3's Andrew Firestone and Jen Schefft: Engagement, broke up after seven months
Season 4's Bob Guiney and Estella Gardinier: No proposal, promise ring offered, broke up after a few weeks
Season 5's Jesse Palmer and Jessica Bowlin: No proposal, broke up after a few weeks
Season 6's Byron Velick and Mary Delgado: Engagement, broke up five years later in 2009 after a domestic dispute that made headlines in 2007
Season 7's Charlie O'Connell and Sarah Brice: No proposal, broke up after a year and a half, got back together a year later only to call it quits again in two years
Season 8's Travis Lane Stork and Sarah Stone: No proposal, broke up before the season eight finale aired
Season 9's Prince Lorenzo Borghese and Jennifer Wilson: No proposal, split a few weeks later
Season 10's Andy Baldwin and Tessa Horst: Engagement, called it off a month later, but stayed in a relationship before calling it quits one month later
Season 11's Brad Womack: Decided not to give either lady, DeAnna Pappas or Jenni Croft, the final rose
Season 12's Matt Grant and Shayne Lamas: Engagement, broke up after two months
Season 13's Jason Mesnick: Proposed to Melissa Rycroft in the finale, only to realize he was actually in love with runner-up Molly Malaney. The two got married in 2010 and have two children together.
Season 14's Jake Pavelka and Vienna Girardi: Engagement, broke up after three months and decided to air each other's dirty laundry during a mudslinging sitdown in front of ABC's cameras
Season 15's Brad Womack and Emily Maynard: Engagement, broke up while the show was airing but reunited only to split once again in May 2011
Season 16's Ben Flajnick and Courtney Robertson: Engagement, broke up before the finale after he saw her bad girl antics on the show. They briefly reunited for nine months before calling it off for good
Season 17's Sean Lowe and Catherine Guidici: Engagement, got married in a televised ceremony 10 months later
Season 18's Juan Pablo Galavis and Nikki Ferrell: No proposal, still together a day after the season ended
So that's 10 engagements and only one wedding (Go Sean and Catherine!), with the nine couples who eventually split lasting an average of three months. As for the couples who ended the season together, but not engaged, their relationships tended to end after just a few weeks, with Charlie O'Connell throwing off the average thanks to his on and off-again romance with Sarah Brice that spanned three years.
What does this tell us? Quite simply, the odds are not in Juan Pablo and Nikki's favor, as our scientific calculations lead us to concur with our Bachelor source and give the couple "less than a month" before a breakup is announced.
For a more extensive look at The Bachelor's track record, as well as The Bachelorette's success rate, check out our status check gallery below!