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Oscar Odds: Ben Affleck's Argo on Top as Voting Begins

Toronto Film Festival, Argo Claire Folger/Warner Bros. Entertainment

With final Oscar voting beginning today, Ben Affleck's Argo seems to be locked in for Best Picture.

But here's the thing: Final Oscar voting begins today, as in, not a single ballot was cast during Argo's sweep of the Directors Guild, Producers Guild and Screen Actors Guild awards.

A sliver of hope for Steven Spielberg's Lincoln? Nah, not really.

 A rundown of the latest odds in some of the top races:

Why Argo's path to victory is as historically unlikely as Lincoln's

Best Picture: Oddsmakers like the U.K. gaming site Sky Bet aren't seeing this race as all that close anymore—it has Argo as a solid 1-to-4 favorite (meaning you'd have to bet $4 to win just $1), and Lincoln as a distinct 3-to-1 runner-up. If there is something for Lincoln to cling to right now, it's this question: What if the Affleck Oscar snub (for Best Director) swung sympathy in his favor during guild voting? What if, having satisfied their need to give Affleck his due, favor swings back to Lincoln just in time for the big finish?  

Best Actress: A still-tight contest, no matter how much Jennifer Lawrence is winning the talk-show circuit and no matter how much Jessica Chastain's Zero Dark Thirty is generally losing steam. As has been the case in recent weeks, the Silver Linings Playbook star is being given the edge over Chastain.  

Best Director: Say, did you hear Affleck wasn't nominated? Probably. But did you know some oddsmakers don't think the contest is in the bag for Affleck's perceived No. 1 rival? On some gaming boards at least, Life of Pi's Ang Lee is making a run at Spielberg. (Others, however, don't have Lee so close.)

Can Lincoln pull a Braveheart?

Best Original Song: If Adele's "Skyfall" is the only nominee you can hum, you're in luck, as it's the only nominee being given serious front-runner odds.

Best Supporting Actor: According to oddsmakers, the big surprise here would be if Silver Linings Playbook's Robert De Niro or Argo's Alan Arkin won. Right now, it's viewed as a essential tossup between Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln), Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained) and Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master).

 

2013's notable nominees

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