You read it here first: Salmon Fishing in the Yemen is not going to beat Les Misérables.
Five other totally spontaneous and nomination-induced predictions for the 70th Annual Golden Globes:
1. Lincoln Is Going to (Almost) Sweep to Victory: The Steven Spielberg film will win Motion Picture Drama, Drama Actor (Daniel Day-Lewis), Supporting Actor (Tommy Lee Jones), screenplay and director (for that Spielberg fellow). It'll lose Supporting Actress (sorry, Sally Field), and Original Score, where token American John Williams will go down to defeat to someone else, let's say for the sake of European argument, Argo's Alexandre Desplat.
2. The Master Makes Us Look (Somewhat) Stupid: If the Hollywood Foreign Press Association decides its not that into U.S. presidential politics, votes in the Supporting Actor category could go the way of Phillip Seymour Hoffman instead of Jones.
3. Something Weird Is Going to Happen in Drama Actress: With Silver Linings Playbook's Jennifer Lawrence competing in Comedy/Musical Actress, Zero Dark Thirty's Jessica Chastain should have a clear path to victory. But since Chastain's competition consists of so many historic HFPA favorites (like, everybody else in the category), there are a lot of opportunities for voters to stray, and go, "Helen Mirren—she's British, like me!" Or, "Marion Cotillard—she's French, like me!" And so and so forth.
4. Something Weird Is Not Going to Happen in Comedy/Musical Actress: There are longtime HFPA favorites nominated here, too, but since the post-Pia Zadora Globe voter tries very hard to anticipate how the modern-day Oscar voter will go, Lawrence will win, even if she's not European. Or Meryl Streep.
5. Les Mis Will Save Its Day: The Tom Hooper snub in Best Director is a troubling awards-season development, but after the epic wins Motion Picture Comedy/Musical, Comedy/Musical Actor (Hugh Jackman) and Supporting Actress (Anne Hathaway), its Oscar ads will be all right. Like Lincoln, however, it will fall short of a sweep of its nominations, as Adele bewitches the HFPA with "Skyfall."