Lincoln, yes. Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter, no.
While the Burlesque moments should be at a minimum at the 70th Annual Golden Globe Awards, Thursday's nominations announcement could still deliver a shock—or five—to awards season.
A rundown of the stars and movies that have the potential to surprise:
1. Hitchcock: Not much of a factor in the early going, the Hollywood drama could come up big thanks to the Hollywood Foreign Press' love of Alfred Hitchcock, Anthony Hopkins, Helen Mirren and (who knew?) Scarlett Johansson. (Kudos to GoldDerby.com for pointing out that zero-time Oscar-nominee Johansson is a four-time Globe nominee.) Another thing in Hitchcock's favor: Les Misérables, which should rival and probably surpass Lincoln for most overall nominations, will compete as a musical not as a drama.
2. Kristen Stewart: Forget that she's starred in the Twilight movies, remember that On the Road played Toronto, and that Stewart promoted the movie alongside other awards-season contenders at a Variety roundtable, and we might not have to pick you and your jaw off the floor if she winds up with a supporting-actress nod.
3. Ted and This Is 40: If you're talking the Oscars, then neither of these comedies are in the discussion for the top awards. If you're talking the Globes, then both of them are. Ted probably has the edge as (1) Seth MacFarlane's hot, in a buzz kind of way, (2) the movie was a half-billion dollar worldwide hit, and (3) the Hollywood Foreign Press historically gets Judd Apatow as much as it gets the Dark Knight trilogy. (Take note: The first two Christopher Nolan Batman movies combined for just one nomination.)
4. Moonrise Kingdom: This top-flight Oscar contender could surprise by not being nominated. The Hollywood Foreign Press historically doesn't get Wes Anderson at all. The filmmaker of Rushmore, The Royal Tenenbaums and more has never been up for a Globe.
5. Tom Cruise: Rock of Ages bombed at the box office, but Cruise still rocked critics. In the Oscar picture or no, never count out the seven-time nominee at the Globes.