Don't let this happen to you.
Here's what to expect Oscar-wise from Steven Spielberg's own presidential offering, Lincoln:
If Voting Were Held Today, Daniel Day-Lewis Would Win Best Actor: We do not say this because he is the runaway pick of the early-bird oddsmaker. We say this because that Time profile, wherein it was revealed the method actor went so far as to text movie wife Sally Field as if he were the 16th president (with a good messaging plan, of course), is still fresh in voters' minds.
Why You Can Count on Him: Day-Lewis doesn't make many movies, but when he does he usually ends up in the Oscar race. In the aughts, he scored two Best Actor nods and one statuette from just four movies.
How, If You Insist, You Can Make Yourself Doubt His Chances: One, Day-Lewis isn't perfect—he starred in the Oscar bait-gone-wrong musical Nine. Two, Day-Lewis already has two career Oscars—perhaps trophy envy will keep him from a third? Three, Day-Lewis' thin little Lincoln voice, now praised for not sounding how the 19th-century great ought to sound (or so we think), will start to grate.
If Voting Were Held Today, Lincoln Would Not Win Best Picture: Despite unimpeachable reviews, Ben Affleck's Argo remains the consensus favorite. The pundits at GoldDerby.com don't even think Lincoln, opening this weekend on 11 screens and going wide on Nov. 16, is the first runner-up. But sure, go ahead and pencil the film in for a nomination.
Other 99.9 Percent Nomination Locks: Spielberg for Best Director, Field for Best Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay for Tony winner Tony Kushner.
The Nightmare Florida-Voting Scenario: Elderly Academy members misread their ballots and accidentally cast their lot with Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter.