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Kristin Wiig, Bridesmaids, Rooney Mara, Dragon Tattoo, Brad Pitt, Moneyball, George Clooney in Ides of March

Sony, Columbia TriStar, Universal Pictures

Oscar Watch

Bridesmaids—in or out? Brad Pitt—in or out? Rooney Mara—in or out? George Clooney—in and out?

The Academy Award nominations are set to be announced Tuesday morning, and undaunted by our so-so performance at the Golden Globes (we called eight of the 14 movie winners), we're right back with a new set of stone-cold locks, otherwise known as guesses.

So, the nominees will (probably) be...

SNUB ALERT: Angelina Jolie, no; Christian Bale, yes

Best Picture

The Artist 
Bridesmaids
The Descendants
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball

Sorry, but thanks for playing: Clooney's The Ides of March, Steven Spielberg's War Horse—and 2011's other 200-plus eligible films

FYI: As a reminder, the field will consist of anywhere from five to 10 nominees. The thinking here, based on how the guild nominations went, is that the magic number will be eight.

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Best Actress

Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

Sorry, but thanks for playing: Albert Nobbs' Glenn Close, Dragon Tattoo's Rooney Mara and The Artist's Bérénice Bejo, who, despite her lead-actress nod at the so-called British Oscars, we're going to say doesn't rate—in this category. 

FYI: Theron gets the edge over the on-the-bubble competition because Diablo Cody, like Woody Allen, writes nominations as much as she writes characters.

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Best Actor

George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Sorry, but thanks for playing: J. Edgar's Leonardo DiCaprio and A Better Life's Demian Bichir.

FYI: It only looks like we cribbed from the BAFTA nominations. Truth is, we're skittish about departing from the SAG script, but especially can't see DiCaprio getting in for a film with zero momentum.

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Best Supporting Actress

Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Marion Cotillard, Midnight in Paris
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

Sorry, but thanks for playing: Albert Nobbs' Janet McTeer and Mia Wasikowska, and, yikes, Bridesmaids' Melissa McCarthy.

FYI: One, very funny movies (and the very funny people in them) get little Oscar respect. Two, actors in Allen films, comedies though they are, get a lot of respect. Add 'em up, and McCarthy is out, and Cotillard, as her beloved movie's most Academy-friendly option, is in. 

P.S.: Streep's shout-out to Wasikowska during The Iron Lady star's Golden Globes speech might have swung some votes the younger actress' way had Oscar voting not closed the Friday before. (And, yes, we know, Streep name-checked Wasikowska's other noteworthy 2011 movie, Jane Eyre, but same difference—the pub came too late, unless, that is, Streep was lobbying for the Aussie behind-the-scenes. And, by the by, if Streep was talking up Wasikowska to her Academy friends, then we take back everything we said about Theron in the Best Actress race, and we hereby give that slot to Wasikowska. How's that for conviction?)

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Best Supporting Actor

Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Albert Brooks, Drive
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Ben Kingsley, Hugo
Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Sorry, but thanks for playing: J. Edgar's Armie Hammer, The Ides of March's Philip Seymour Hoffman and Warrior's Nick Nolte.

FYI: What we said about DiCaprio? The same goes, unfortuantely, for Hammer.

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E! Online will be livestreaming the Oscar nominations Tuesday morning at 5:30 a.m. PT.

PHOTOS: 2012 Oscars Cheat Sheet!