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    Harry Potter's Oscar Chances Officially Better Than Breaking Dawn's

    Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 Summit Entertainment, Warner Bros.

    The Harry Potter franchise wasn't snubbed. The Twilight series was M.I.A.

    A look at which Oscar hopefuls are trending up—and down:

    Oscar Watch

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    HOTTER

    1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows—Part 2: Composer Alexandre Desplat's score was among the 97 deemed eligible for the Original Score category. (His works for Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close and The Ides of March also were given the all-clear.) To date, Potter films have received two score nominations, both for music by John Williams, who's up this season for War Horse and The Adventures of Tintin.

    2. Captain America: The First Avenger: The catchiest superhero ditty since the 1960s theme song for Spider-Man was among the 39 tracks eligible for the Original Song race.

    3. The Muppets: They can't all make the finals, but "Life's a Happy Song," "Man or Muppet" and "Pictures in My Head" are all up for consideration for Original Song. (Take that, Golden Globes snub!)

    4. Zooey Deschanel: Can't resist a shout-out to the New Girl's Oscar-eligible WInnie the Pooh track, "So Long," written and recorded under the auspices of the actress' indie outfit She & Him

    COLDER

    1. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn: Part 1Bruno Mars' "It Will Rain" was the first single off the soundtrack and a Billboard hit. But the Academy says the track wasn't submitted for Original Song consideration—probably because it was in the works prior to Mars gettting the call to contribute. (An Oscar Original Song needs to have been written expressly for its movie.) No other Breaking Dawn cut made the eligible song list, although it's not known if any were submitted. The movie was likewise absent from the rundown of Original Score candidates. 

    2. Madonna: As predicted by HitFix, the M One's "Masterpiece" from W.E., though lauded by the Hollywood Foreign Press, didn't make the Original Song cut because it was used too late in the movie (or, rather, too late in the end credits).

    3. War Horse: Maybe it'll burst out of the box-office gate on Christmas Day, but its C-average, 76 percent critical rating (as of Friday) on Rotten Tomatoes isn't helping the presumed Steven Spielberg frontrunner build momentum—or generate better headlines than, say, "Spielberg's War Horse Loses Ground on Oscar Rivals." 

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