Forget Sanjaya, Did Carrie Curse Idol?

Idol remains atop Nielsen ratings, but continues to fall off last year's pace

By Joal Ryan Apr 22, 2008 9:32 PMTags
Carrie UnderwoodMichael Caulfield/WireImage.com

On second thought, maybe American Idol is just suffering the curse of its own success.

Not to mention Carrie Underwood.

Last week's Idols were again 1-2 in the Nielsen rankings, but they put up numbers pretty much unseen since the 2005 Underwood season.

Tuesday's Idol averaged 23.6 million viewers; Wednesday's results show 23.3 million. The episodes were off a combined 8.5 million viewers from last year's Top Seven week, and 9.1 million from 2006's.

The performances compare more favorably to 2005's Top Seven week. In fact, they're just about even.

The difference is, in 2005, Idol was in the midst of its biggest season yet. In 2008, it's in the midst of its, well, third-biggest season yet.

While it's been noted that the show has been in decline since the ejection last season of Sanjaya Malakar, a more substantial culprit just might be Underwood.

If Malakar was Idol's most notorious contestant, Underwood is arguably its biggest success story. Her season-long march to the Idol finals pushed the show for the first time above the 25 million viewer mark on both performance and results nights. What followed were ratings explosions in '06, considered among the strongest talent years, and '07, considered among the weakest.

In hindsight then, if Underwood hadn't been the ideal Idol, maybe the tune-ins for '06 wouldn't have been so great, '07 wouldn't have been so big, and '08 wouldn't look like it's circling the shark and about to jump.

Or maybe Idol just shouldn't do a Mariah Carey week again. There's that, too.

Here's a look inside the ratings for the TV week ended Sunday, per the latest stats from Nielsen Media Research:

  • The funny thing about Idol is that while it's down from a year ago, and down from two years ago, it's up from three years ago.
  • By the way, if Idol has jumped the ratings shark, then CBS' Survivor has jumped it, crashed and drowned. Last year at this time, the reality franchise was pulling in 13.3 million viewers; two years ago it was 16.3 million. Last week: 12 million. Fortunately, you can't drown when the water around you has gone shallow. Survivor: Micronesia was last week's 11th most watched show.
  • Speaking of shallow waters, the more TV ratings erode, the bigger the hit NBC's The Office (21st place, 9.9 million) becomes.
  • NBC's Law & Order: SVU (ninth place, 13.3 million) returned, and returned to the top 10. ABC's Brothers & Sisters (19th place, 10.08 million) returned, and returned to the top 20.
  • CBS' NCIS (sixth place, 15.1 million) had a good week against Idol, and a better week, rankings-wise, on cable, where a Saturday broadcast on USA was the No. 3 show (4.1 million viewers), behind only two installments of pro wrestling, also on USA.
  • The latest showdown between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama drew the biggest audience of the presidential debate season (14th place, 10.7 million), as the poor ABC News staffer who had to process all the angry emails could likely attest.
  • In the battle of reality show season finales, NBC's Biggest Loser (12th place, 11.4 million) crushed, if we may, ABC's Oprah's Big Give (19th place, 10.09 million).
  • If the CW's America's Next Top Model (88th place, 3.9 million) were on cable, it would be the top reality show. Oops, wait. MTV's The Hills (4 million) was cable's top reality show.
  • To rephrase, if the CW's America's Next Top Model were on cable, it would be among the top reality shows. And if One Tree Hill (102nd place, 2.8 million) were on cable, it'd absolutely be the top scripted show. Since there wasn't a new Hannah Montana on last week.
  • Other cable standouts, among shows that actually air on cable: VH1's Rock of Love 2 reunion show (4.03 million); Discovery's Deadliest Catch (3.5 million); and, Comedy Central's stalwart, South Park (3.1 million).
  • With Spike TV's Star Wars fever finally subsiding, a Disney Channel broadcast of Spy Kids (3.5 million) was the top cable movie.
  • If you call Bravo's The Real Housewives of New York City a reality series, a la Project Runway, then its finale performance (1.4 million) could be called good. But if you call the show a "docu-series," not a la Project Runway, then Bravo can call the finale it's highest-rated one ever.
  • Another Bravo "docu-series," Work Out (764,000), got off to a good start, with its third season premiere up 4 percent over its season two launch, the network said.

In the network race, Idol led Fox to wins as the most watched network among all viewers (averaging 8.8 million) and 18- to 49-year-olds (averaging 4.2 million).

CBS finished second in total viewers. Led by, of all things, The Office, NBC, of all networks, took second in young adults.

In cable, the top three prime-time networks were: USA (2.7 million); Disney (2.1 million); and, TNT (2.07 million).

Here's a look at the 10 most-watched broadcast network prime-time shows for the week ended Sunday, according to Nielsen Media Research:

1. American Idol (Tuesday), Fox, 23.6 million viewers
2. American Idol (Wednesday), Fox, 23.3 million viewers
3. Dancing with the Stars (Monday), ABC, 17.2 million viewers
4. Desperate Housewives, 15.7 million viewers
5. Dancing with the Stars (Tuesday), ABC, 15.4 million viewers
6. NCIS, CBS, 15.1 million viewers
7. Two and a Half Men, CBS, 13.9 million viewers
8. CSI: NY, CBS, 13.4 million viewers
9. Law & Order: SVU, NBC, 13.3 million viewers
10. Criminal Minds, CBS, 13 million viewers