Will Team Edward members turn out for Robert Pattinson when he's moonlighting as some mortal guy named Tyler?
That's the box-office question for Pattinson and Remember Me, the Twilight star's first movie since becoming the abbreviatable R.Pattz. And we've got the answer. Five of them, in fact. In two parts. The better to obsess over. Here goes.
Remember Me will hit because...
1. It can't miss.
Nobody expects the film, a straight-ahead romantic drama trying to make a go of it in a genre dominated by Nicholas Sparks-spawned titles, to topple Alice in Wonderland, or even challenge Matt Damon's Green Zone for distant second at the weekend box office.
Given its lean budget—only $16 million—Remember Me doesn't have to do a lot to get fat: A debut in the neighborhood of $10 million would do it. Heck, even Leap Year, which nobody liked, and which didn't feature an abbreviatable star, opened with about that much.
2. Team Pattinson is on board.
Guess who's made the Twilight franchise a megafranchise? Young women, followed by formerly young women. Guess who's most into Remember Me? Young women, followed by formerly young women.
3. It's all about the all-new Eclipse trailer.
Sure you could watch it—and did—on your phone this morning, but Pattinson's hair and Taylor Lautner's abs look so much bigger on the big screen. Isn't that worth the price of admission alone?
Maybe. Or, then again, maybe not. Which brings us to the second part of our countdown:
Remember Me will bomb because...
4. One compound word: Bandslam.
Despite great reviews, a franchise-familiar face (High School Musical's Vanessa Hudgens) and the supposed lure of the all-new New Moon trailer, this 2009 summer flick failed to open in the top 10. If it's true Pattinson's a far bigger name than Hudgens, then it's also true Bandslam's Rotten Tomatoes score was far higher than Remember Me's (at least as of late Thursday).
5. One stalled breakout vehicle: Me and Orson Welles.
Zac Efron might have graduated from HSM once and for all in this Richard Linklater drama, but he couldn't put bottoms in seats. The $25 million movie barely made $1 million domestically.
On the plus side for Pattinson, Efron did break out, even if his movie didn't. And if a Wildcat can do it, then surely so can a vampire...er, right?
Check out all the weekend's films—newbies and holdovers—in our Totally New Releases gallery.