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Sandra Bullock

Steve Granitz/Getty Images

Oscar Watch

You know the favorites. We know the favorites. To keep us all from getting bored between now and Sunday's show, we're back with our sorta-annual look at why the Oscars won't go the way we think know they're going to go.

To be honest, Sandra Bullock doesn't have a thing to worry about. Until, perhaps, she checks out our list of why-nots and what-could-bes:

Why The Hurt Locker won't win Best Picture: It's December again, and Avatar is the too-successful-to-ignore lock.

Why Avatar won't win Best Picture: It's March, and The Hurt Locker is the too-acclaimed-to-ignore lock.

Why Sandra Bullock won't win Best Actress: The Academy takes pity, yes, pity on Meryl Streep. For Susan Lucci's sake, the woman hasn't done anything but lose, lose, lose at the Oscars since before the first "We Are the World."

Why Meryl Streep won't win: Bullock is the Avatar of actresses—too much box-office success in 2009, even more than the suddenly huge Streep, to ignore.

Why Sandra Bullock and Meryl Streep won't win: Gabourey Sidibe is rewarded for (a) a profound, powerful film performance; and, (b) an infectious, delightful awards-circuit performance.

Why Jeff Bridges won't win Best Actor:  Give us a minute, this is a tough one… Er, the best we can come up with is Jeremy Renner rides a Hurt Locker sweep straight to the podium.

Why Christoph Waltz won't win Best Supporting Actor; why Mo'Nique won't win Best Supporting Actress: Look, if Waltz and Mo'Nique don't win, we're going to think we tuned into the wrong show. But if we have to come up with reasons, we'll say the Academy confuses Christopher Plummer for Christoph Waltz, and throws Mo'Nique overboard to get in good with the Twilight crowd, via Up in the Air's Anna Kendrick.

Why Kathryn Bigelow won't win Best Director: It's true. James Cameron really is the king of the world.

Why James Cameron won't win Best Director: It's true. Kathryn Bigelow really is the king of the world.  

Why Up won't win Best Animated Feature: It blows its votes, and its steam, in Best Picture, and leaves the door open for Coraline. (File this one under "Highly, Highly Unlikely.")

Why Avatar won't win Achievement in Visual Effects: The prawns demand retribution; District 9 pulls the upset.

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